2014 Melbourne Cup - Research

1. 58.5Kg

1st in the Caulfield Cup of 2014 over 2400m

Genuine Stayer (winning runs of 1800m or above)

Already proven in Australian

Has won at 3400m but best form is around 2400m

No horse has carried as much weight to win the cup (58.5Kg)

Minimum Distance Win: 1800 Max Distance Win: 3400

Betting $4 - $4.80

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 1/18

Kyoto 04-May-14 3200m TENNO SHO - Finished 13/18

Hanshin 23-Mar-14 3000m  HANSH DAISHOTEN - Finished 2/9

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 1/18

2. 57Kg

Experienced inform stayer from the Godolphin stable

Has form around Brown Panther, Estimate, Pale Mimosa, Jakkalberry

12th in the Melbourne Cup of 2012

Recently won at 3200m - Goodwood 31-Jul-14 3218m CL1

The oldest horse to win the Cup is 8 years old

Minimum Distance Win: 1600 Max Distance Win: 3270

Betting $21

Recent Form

Goodwood 31-Jul-14 3218m CL1 - Finished 1/8
Newmarket 10-Jul-14 2414m CL1 - Finished 1/6
Meydan 29-Mar-14 3218m CL1  - Finished 2/15
Meydan 01-Mar-14 2816m  CL  - Finished 1/12

Goodwood 31-Jul-14 3218m CL1 - Finished 1/8

3. 57Kg

                                                     

6th in the Melbourne Cup of 2013

2nd in the Caulfield Cup of 2014

1st in the Caulfield Cup of 2013

Longest win 2400m (Caulfield Cup)

Minimum Distance Win: 1400 Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $16 - $17 - $18 - $19 - $21 - $12 - $9

Recent Form

Caulfield 11-Oct-14 2000m  G1 Caulfield Stks - Finished 1/12
Flemington 13-Sep-14 1600m G1 Makybe Diva - Finished 2/10

Moonee Valley 21-Mar-14 1200m  R7 William Reid - Finished 7/10

Caulfield Cup 2014 - 2nd

Melbourne Cup 2013 - 6th

4. 57Kg

2nd in the Melbourne Cup of 2013

8th in the Melbourne Cup of 2012

2nd in the Melbourne Cup of 2011

Can perform at distance and in the Melbourne Cup

Age should be a barrier but as last year has proven this horse can not be written off and is a chance.

Form going into the cup is not as good as last year

The oldest horse to win the Cup is 8 years old

Minimum Distance Win: 2400 Max Distance Win: 2800

Betting $21 - $17

Recent Form

Newbury 16-Aug-14 2670m CL1 - Finished 4/11
Kyoto 04-May-14 3218m CL1 - Finished 14/18

Meydan 29-Mar-14 2011m  CL1 - Finished 6/16

Flemington 05-Nov-13 3200m G1 Melbourne Cup - 2nd

5. 56.5Kg

Genuine Stayer (only early starts below 2000m)

Has run in Australia (4th in the Herbert Power over 2400m) and the only time the horse has finished unplaced.

Has won at 3000m and seeming better over more distance

Unproven at 3200m, yet to win in Australia and untested in a large field

Minimum Distance Win: 1600 Max Distance Win: 3000

Betting $5.50 - $7.50

Recent Form

Caulfield 11-Oct-14 2400m  G2 Herbert Power - Finished 4/13

Deauville 24-Aug-14 3000m  PRIX KERGORLAY - Finished 1/4

Hamburg 29-Jun-14 2400m HANSA-PREIS - Finished 1/10
Baden-Baden 01-Jun-14 2200m UNTERNEHMER - Finished 2/9
Hoppegarten 20-Apr-14 2000m  VON DAHLWITZ - Finished 2/8

Deauville 24-Aug-14 3000m  PRIX KERGORLAY - Finished 1/4

                                                    

6. 56.5Kg - Scratched

13th in the Melbourne Cup of 2013

Enigma of a horse poor form followed by excellent form - best form is above 2000m

Longest race 2900m - finished 3rd - Doncaster (Good) 10/09/2011 Race 1 2900m ST LEGER

Has won over 2400m several times including in Australia - Caulfield (Dead) 12/10/2013 Race 8 2400m Sportingbet Herbert Power Stakes, Ascot (GB) (Dead) 23/06/2012 Race 2 2400m HARDWICKE, Goodwood (Good) 26/05/2012 Race 2 2400m TAPSTER

Has form around Dunaden, Red Cardeaux, Dandino and Brown Panther

Out of form - Hard to recommend 

Minimum Distance Win: 1605 Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $16 - $17 - $18 - $19 - $21 - $26 - $21 - $201 - $151

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 18/18

Flemington 04-Oct-14 2520m G3 Bart Cummings - Finished 5/8

Flemington 08-Mar-14 1600m BLAMEY - Finished 8/8


Caulfield 12/10/2013 2400m Herbert Power Stakes - 1st

7. 56Kg

Genuine stayer only wins are over 2000m

15th in the Caulfield Cup of 2014 over 2400m

Longest race win - Newbury 16-Aug-14 2700m GEOFFREY FREER


Has been tested over 3200m - Sandown 29-May-14 3290m  CL1  - Finished 6/11

Has form arond Willing Foe, Brown Panther

Minimum Distance Win: 2000 Max Distance Win: 2700

Betting $26 - $35

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 15/18
Newbury 16-Aug-14 2700m GEOFFREY FREER - Finished 1/11
Longchamp 13-Jul-14 2799m CL1 - Finished 4/9
Sandown 29-May-14 3290m  CL1  - Finished 6/11
Meydan 29-Mar-14 3218m CL1  - Finished 10/15

Longchamp 13-Jul-14 2799m CL1 - Finished 4/9

8. 55.5Kg

Genuine Stayer (has only wins above 1900m)

Untested, unknown quantity at 3200m

Worth considering at distance, perhaps strongest at 2000m

Minimum Distance Win: 1900 Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $19 - $26

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 7/18
Royal Randwick 04-Oct-14 2400m G1 The Metrop - Finished 1/16
Royal Randwick 20-Sep-14 2000m G2 Hill Stks - Finished 1/6
Royal Randwick 06-Sep-14 1600m G2 Chelmsford - Finished 6/8
Royal Randwick 23-Aug-14 1200m G3 Showcounty - Finished 8/9
Doomben 17-May-14 2000m G1 Doomben Cup- Finished 3/10

Royal Randwick 04-Oct-14 2400m G1 The Metrop - Finished 1/16

9. 55.5Kg

Genuine stayer only wins are over 2800m to 3200m

Suited to the distance

Has form around Estimate, Voleuse De Coeurs

Minimum Distance Win: 2800 Max Distance Win: 3200

Betting $41 - $61

Recent Form

Curragh 24-Aug-14 2816m CL1 - Finished 2/5

Ascot 19-Jun-14 4023m CL1 - Finished 12/13

Navan 18-May-14 2816m CL1 - Finished 2/6

Curragh 24-Aug-14 Irish St Ledger 2816m CL1 - Finished 2/5

10. 55Kg

Has had a mixed preparation in Australia prior

Genuine stayer and is good form

Untested at distance, longest win and start at 2500m - Deauville 10-Aug-14 2500m PRIX DE REUX - Finished 1/5

Minimum Distance Win: 1980 Max Distance Win: 2500

Betting $51

Recent Form

Deauville 31-Aug-14 2500m GP DE DEAUVILLE  - Finished 2/5
Deauville 10-Aug-14 2500m PRIX DE REUX - Finished 1/5
Newmarket 28-Jun-14 2414m CL  - Finished 2/8
Goodwood 24-May-14 2414m CL1  - Finished 1/4
Ascot 10-May-14 2414m CL1  - Finished 1/9

Geelong 24-Oct-12 2400m GEELONG CUP - 1st

11. 55Kg

Genuine Stayer (Has multiple starts and wins at 3200m)

Has not started in Australia and will be a much larger field size than its used to.

Minimum Distance Win: 2400 Max Distance Win: 3200

Betting $14 - $12

Recent Form

Leopardstown 17-Jul-14 2816m  CL1  - Finished 3/7
Curragh 28-Jun-14 3218m  CLHcp - Finished 1/11


Ascot 10-Aug-13 3218m CL2 Hcp - Finished 2/10

12. 55Kg

Has won over the distance against lesser class - Ellerslie 05-Mar-14 3200m  AUCKLAND CUP

13th in the Caulfield Cup of 2014 over 2400m

In good form however may struggle against this class field.

Minimum Distance Win: 1600 Max Distance Win: 3200

Betting $21

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 13/18
Flemington 04-Oct-14 2520m G3 Bart Cummings - Finished 1/8
Flemington 13-Sep-14 2000mHcp - Finished 1/8
Rosehill Gardens 30-Aug-14 1800m LR Premiercup  - Finished 7/13
Rosehill Gardens 16-Aug-14 1400m Springprev  - Finished 14/15


Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 13/18

13. 55Kg

Lightly raced (only three starts since 2012)

Unraced in Australia - Has form around Brown Panther, Seismos

Longest win 2800m - York 25-Aug-12 2816m CL2Hcp

Longest start 3099m, placed 3rd- Longchamp 16-Sep-12 3099m CL1

The oldest horse to win the Cup is 8 years old

Minimum Distance Win: 2100 Max Distance Win: 2800

Betting $21 - $31

Recent Form

Newbury 16-Aug-14 2670m CL1e - Finished 2/11
Newbury 18-May-13 2670m  CL1 - Finished 1/11

  14Sep14 2800m Good IRISH ST LEGER - 4th

14. 54.5Kg

Has yet to race in Australia

Best form around 2400m

Untested at 3200m

Minimum Distance Win: 1700 Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $41

Recent Form

30 Jun 2013  PRETTY POLLY STAKES 2011m 1st of 9 

15. 54.5Kg

Quality stayer over a long period, however I believe it to be past it prime and will likely struggle against the class field

Unknown quantity at distance 

Longest win 2600m - Flemington 09-Nov-13 2600m  QUEEN ELIZABETH

Minimum Distance Win: 1600 Max Distance Win: 2600

Betting $61 - $81

Recent Form

Moonee Valley 25-Oct-14 2500m G2 Moonee Valley Cup - Finished 5/9
Moonee Valley 26-Sep-14 2040m G3 Jra Cup  - Finished 5/12
Flemington 13-Sep-14 1400m LR Tontonan - Finished 12/15
Eagle Farm 07-Jun-14 2400m G2 Qlty - Finished 7/11
Doomben 24-May-14 2200m  G3 Premier's Cup - Finished 2/14
Gold Coast 03-May-14 1800m G2 Hollindale Stks - Finished 3/11

Flemington 09-Nov-13 2600m  QUEEN ELIZABETH - 1st

16. 54Kg

Good performance in Caulfield Cup - 4th

Unknown quantity at distance 

Longest win 2400m - Eagle Farm 09-Jun-12 2400m 3y-sw

Minimum Distance Win: 1600 Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $19 - $35

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 4/18

Flemington 04-Oct-14 2000m7 G1 Turnbull  - Finished 3/17

Flemington 13-Sep-14 1700m  Hcp - Finished 1/11

Caulfield 30-Aug-14 1700m LR Heatherlie - Finished 2/15

Caulfield 16-Aug-14 1400m G2 Lawrence Stk - Finished 8/10

Moonee Valley 21-Jun-14 1600mHcp - Finished 8/11

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 4/18

17. 54Kg

Hard to make a case for on recent form

Has staying ability but surely outclassed

Minimum Distance Win: 1600 Max Distance Win: 2350

Betting $101 - $201

Recent Form

Cranbourne 12-Oct-14 2025m LR Tab Cranbourne Cup - Finished 7/12
Moonee Valley 26-Sep-14 2040m G3 Jra Cup  - Finished 4/12
Rosehill Gardens 13-Sep-14 2000m G3 King Town - Finished 6/14
Caulfield 30-Aug-14 1700m  LR Heatherlie Hc - Finished 5/15
Sunshine Coast 28-Jun-14 2400m  LR Caloundra Cup - Finished 9/11
Eagle Farm 07-Jun-14 2400m  G2 Qlt - Finished 5/11

18. 53.5Kg

One race in Australia - Moonee Valley 25-Oct-14 2500m G2 Moonee Valley Cup - Finished 3/9

Genuine stayer - Only won around 2400m

Longest start 3000m - Longchamp 08-Sep-13 3000m  PRIX DE LUTECE  - Finished 4/7

Minimum Distance Win: 2400 Max Distance Win: 2450

Betting $35 - $51

Recent Form

Moonee Valley 25-Oct-14 2500m G2 Moonee Valley Cup - Finished 3/9

Longchamp 14-Sep-14 2400m PRIX FOY- Finished 4/6

Longchamp 08-May-14 2400m  D'HEDOUVILLE  - Finished 6/7

Longchamp 17-Apr-14 2400m LORD SEYMOUR  - Finished 2/9

Saint-Cloud 15-Mar-14 2000m PRIX EXBURY   - Finished 4/10

19. 53.5Kg

Untested at distance

6th in the Caulfield Cup of 2014 over 2400m

Longest race win - Toulouse 15-Jun-12 2400m DERBY DU LANGUE, Bordeaux Le Bouscat 26-May-12 2400m DERBY DU MIDI


In form against a lot of the field but the real test will be the distance

Minimum Distance Win: 1200 Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $26 - $41

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 6/18
Flemington 04-Oct-14 2000m G1 Turnbul - Finished 2/16
Caulfield 20-Sep-14 1800m G1 Underwood - Finished 4/10
Moonee Valley 06-Sep-14 1600m G2 Feehan  - Finished 4/11
Caulfield 16-Aug-14 1400m G2 Lawrence Stkv  - Finished 5/10



20. 53.5Kg

Longest race start  unplaced 2800m - York (GB) (Slow) 24-Aug-13 Race 1 2800m EBOR HCP

Has won four times at 1800m to 2400m (Has staying ability)

Untested at 3200m

Minimum Distance Win: 1800  Max Distance Win: 2400

Betting $41 - $26 - $21 - $51 - $31 - $51

Recent Form

Moonee Valley 25-Oct-14 2500m G2 Moonee Valley Cup - Finished 6/9

Royal Randwick 04-Oct-14 2400m G1 The Metrop - Finished 2/16

Rosehill Gardens 13-Sep-14 2000m G3 King Town - Finished 10/14

Rosehill Gardens 30-Aug-14 1800m  LR Premiercup - Finished 5/13

Rosehill Gardens 16-Aug-14 1400m Springprev  - Finished 13/15

21. 53Kg

Genuine Stayer (has only wins above 2000m)

Untested, unknown quantity at 3200m

Minimum Distance Win: 2000 Max Distance Win: 2800

Betting $19 - $26

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 5/18
Royal Randwick 04-Oct-14 2400m G1 The Metrop - Finished 3/16
Caulfield 20-Sep-14 2000m G3 Naturalism - Finished 6/11
Caulfield 30-Aug-14 1700mLR Heatherlie Hc - Finished 7/15

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 5/18

22. 53Kg

3rd in the Caulfield Cup of 2014 over 2400m

Has best form around 2000m, has placed all starts at 2400m, untested at 3200m

Minimum Distance Win: 1200 Max Distance Win: 2000

Betting $7 - $6.50

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 3/18
Flemington 04-Oct-14 2000m G1 Turnbull - Finished 1/16
Royal Randwick 20-Sep-14 1600m G1 George Main - Finished 6/10
Royal Randwick 06-Sep-14 1400m G2 Tramway - Finished 1/12
Royal Randwick 19-Apr-14 2400m G1 Atc Oaks - Finished 3/15

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 3/18

                                  

23. 51.5Kg

Hard to make a case for on recent form

Has staying ability but surely outclassed

Has won over 3200m - Flemington 24-May-14 3200m LR Ramsden

Minimum Distance Win: 1411 Max Distance Win: 3200

Betting $201

Recent Form

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2400m  CAULFIELD CUP - Finished 17/18
Caulfield 11-Oct-14 2400m  G2 Herbert Power  - Finished 9/13
Sandown Hill 27-Sep-14 2400m  LR Hcp  - Finished 3/12
Moonee Valley 06-Sep-14 2500m  Bm96 - Finished 4/7
Caulfield 16-Aug-14 2000m Hcp - Finished 3/8
Moonee Valley 02-Aug-14 1600m Hcp - Finished 8/10                                 

24. 51Kg

Has staying ability and is better over distance

Has yet to be really tested and raced at 3200m

Longest Race win 2500m - Moonee Valley (Dead) 29-Mar-14 Race 3 2500m Bm90, Finished 1/8

Minimum Distance Win: 1400 Max Distance Win: 2500

Betting $21 - $35 - $9

Recent Form   

Caulfield 18-Oct-14 2000m  G3 Coongy,  Finished 3/10

Caulfield 11-Oct-14 2400m G2 Herbert Power, Finished 2/13

Moonee Valley (Dead) 29-Mar-14 Race 3 2500m Bm90, Finished 1/8

Bendigo (Good) 15-Mar-14 Race 5 2400m BM84, Finished 1/13

Moonee Valley (Good) 21-Feb-14 Race 4 2040m 0 - 78, Finished 1/12 

Morphettville (Good) 01-Feb-14 Race 6 2014m 0 - 72, Finished 1/12 

Caulfield (Dead) 15-Jan-14 Race 8 1800m BM70, Finished 5/12   

Removing scratchings (Sea Moon), age (8 years and above), Weight above 58kg, horses that haven't started in Australia and other factors such as bad barriers for the cup. I have also removed horse that I simply can't see winning the cup and we are left with the runners in blue.

However my tips are

Admire Ratki

Protectionist 

Fawkner

Lucia Valentina

Outsiders - Who Shot Thebarman and Janoob